{"id":3827,"date":"2020-04-16T23:45:15","date_gmt":"2020-04-16T21:45:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/myoceane.fr\/?p=3827"},"modified":"2020-04-25T23:01:27","modified_gmt":"2020-04-25T21:01:27","slug":"inserm%e5%b0%81%e5%9f%8e%e9%9a%94%e9%9b%a2%e7%9a%84%e5%bd%b1%e9%9f%bf%e5%8f%8a%e6%9c%aa%e4%be%86%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%a0%b1%e5%91%8a%e6%9b%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/myoceane.fr\/index.php\/inserm%e5%b0%81%e5%9f%8e%e9%9a%94%e9%9b%a2%e7%9a%84%e5%bd%b1%e9%9f%bf%e5%8f%8a%e6%9c%aa%e4%be%86%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%a0%b1%e5%91%8a%e6%9b%b8\/","title":{"rendered":"[COVID-19]\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u53ca\u672a\u4f86\u7b56\u7565\u5831\u544a\u66f8-\u6cd5\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u885b\u751f\u7814\u7a76\u9662\uff08INSERM\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n\n

\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u6cd5\u570b\u885b\u751f\u7814\u7a76\u9662\uff08INSERM\uff09
\u4e3b\u984c\uff1a\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u53ca\u672a\u4f86\u7b56\u7565\u5831\u544a\u66f8 (Expected impact of lockdown in \u00cele-de-France and possible exit strategies)
\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aDi Domenico et al.<\/em>
\u51fa\u7248\uff1a2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u76f4\u81f3\u4eca\u65e5\uff0c\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7d04\u6709\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\uff0890\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff09\u6b63\u9032\u884c\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u3002\u6cd5\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u885b\u751f\u7814\u7a76\u9662\uff08INSERM\uff09\u91dd\u5c0d3\u670817\u65e5\u958b\u59cb\u7684\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u89c0\u5bdf\u6b64\u7a2e\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u9694\u96e2\u653f\u7b56\u5c0dCOVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u4e14\u91dd\u5c0d\u524d\u5169\u9031\u7684\u9694\u96e2\u6548\u679c\uff083\u670816\u65e5\u81f33\u670829\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u505a\u51fa\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u5831\u544a\uff084\u670812\u65e5\u767c\u8868\u6700\u65b0\u5831\u544a\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u5229\u5f8c\u7e8c\u7576\u6b64\u653f\u7b56\u9b06\u7d81\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u6f38\u6f38\u56de\u5230\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u4ecd\u53ef\u9054\u5230\u6e1b\u7de9\u6b64\u75c5\u6bd2\u6563\u64ad\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u6b64\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e74\u9f61\u7d50\u69cb\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u4ee5\u5927\u5df4\u9ece\u5730\u5340\u9810\u6e2c\uff09\uff1a
(1) \u8a55\u4f30\u6cd5\u570b\u76ee\u524d\u7684COVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002
(2) \u8a55\u4f302020\u5e743\u670817\u65e5\u5728\u5168\u570b\u8303\u570d\u5167\u5be6\u65bd\u7684\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u4e4b\u9810\u671f\u5f71\u97ff\u3002
(3) \u8a55\u4f30\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u9000\u51fa\uff08\u505c\u6b62\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\uff09\u7b56\u7565\u3002\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u8b93\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u53bb\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fdd\u8b77\u5e74\u9577\u8005\uff1b\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u6aa2\u6e2c\u53ca\u9694\u96e2\u60a3\u8005\uff09\u3002
\uff0a\u8a3b\uff1a\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6578\u64da\u7686\u75313\u670816\u65e5\u81f33\u670829\u65e5\u7684\u5927\u5df4\u9ece\u771f\u5be6\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u6a21\u64ec4\u6708\u4e4b\u5f8c\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(1) \u8a55\u4f30\u6cd5\u570b\u76ee\u524d\u7684COVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u60c5\u6cc1<\/strong>
\u5716\u4e00\uff08a\uff09\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u57282020\u5e744\u67082\u865f\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u6bcf\u500b\u5730\u5340\uff0c\u6bcf\u5341\u842c\u4eba\u611f\u67d3COVID-19\u4e26\u4f4f\u9662\u7684\u4eba\u6578\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u6cd5\u570b\u6771\u90e8\u5927\u5340\u548c\u5927\u5df4\u9ece\u5730\u5340\u75ab\u60c5\u6700\u70ba\u56b4\u5cfb\u3002
\u5716\u4e00\uff08b\uff09\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230ICU\u75c5\u5e8a\u5728\u5927\u5df4\u9ece\u5730\u5340\u65e5\u6f38\u98fd\u548c\u3002
\u5716\u4e00\uff08c\uff09\u70ba\u5927\u5df4\u9ece\u5730\u5340\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u5206\u4f48\u5716\u3002\u5152\u7ae5\uff08children\uff0c0-18\u6b72\uff09\uff0c\u6210\u4eba\uff08adults\uff0c19-64\u6b72\uff09\uff0c\u5e74\u9577\u8005\uff08seniors\uff0c65\u6b72\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff09\u3002
\u5716\u4e00\uff08d\uff09\u986f\u793a\u5c01\u57ce\u524d\uff08\u5de6\u5716\uff09\uff0cc\uff08\u5152\u7ae5\uff09a\uff08\u6210\u4eba\uff09s\uff08\u5e74\u9577\u8005\uff09\u7684\u63a5\u89f8\u6b21\u6578\u7686\u6bd4\u5c01\u57ce\uff08\u53f3\u5716\uff09\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
\u5716\u4e00\uff1a\u5927\u5df4\u9ece\u5730\u5340\u7684\u73fe\u6cc1<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

(2) \u8a55\u4f302020\u5e743\u670817\u65e5\u5728\u5168\u570b\u8303\u570d\u5167\u5be6\u65bd\u7684\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u4e4b\u9810\u671f\u5f71\u97ff<\/strong>
COVID-19\u9694\u96e2\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u50b3\u64ad\u52d5\u529b\u5b78\uff08\u5716\u4e8c\uff09\uff0c\u5c07\u500b\u4eba\u5206\u70ba\uff1a\u6613\u611f\uff0c\u66b4\u9732\uff0c\u611f\u67d3\uff0c\u4f4f\u9662\uff0c\u91cd\u75c7\u76e3\u8b77\uff0c\u5eb7\u5fa9\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u50b3\u67d3\u968e\u6bb5\u5206\u70ba\u5169\u500b\u6b65\u9a5f\uff1a\u6f5b\u4f0f\u671f\u7d50\u675f\u524d\u7684\u9a45\u4f7f\u968e\u6bb5\uff08E\u548cIp\u968e\u6bb5\u7684\u6642\u9593\u9577\u5ea6\u662f\u6f5b\u4f0f\u671f\uff09\u548c\u500b\u9ad4\u4fdd\u6301\u7121\u75c7\u72c0\u6216\u51fa\u73fe\u75c7\u72c0\u7684\u968e\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
\u5716\u4e8c\uff1a\u9694\u96e2\u6a21\u578b\u3002 S\uff1a\u6613\u611f (Susceptible)\uff0cE\uff1a\u66b4\u9732 (Exposed),\uff0cIp\uff1a\u5728\u524d\u9a45\u968e\u6bb5\u611f\u67d3 (Infectious in the prodromic phase\uff0cIa\uff1a\u7121\u75c7\u72c0\u611f\u67d3 Asymptomatic Infectious\uff0cIps\uff1a\u55ae\u4e00\u75c7\u72c0\u611f\u67d3 Paucysymptomatic Infectious)\uff0cIms\uff1a\u591a\u75c7\u72c0\u8f15\u5ea6\u611f\u67d3 (Symptomatic Infectious with mild symptoms)\uff0cIss\uff1a\u591a\u75c7\u72c0\u56b4\u91cd\u611f\u67d3(Symptomatic Infectious with severe symptoms)\uff0cICU\uff1a\u91cd\u75c7\u60a3\u8005\u5165\u4f4fICU (severe case admitted to ICU)\uff0cH\uff1a\u91cd\u75c7\u60a3\u8005\u5165\u9662\u4f46\u672a\u63a5\u53d7\u91cd\u75c7\u76e3\u8b77 (severe
case admitted to the hospital but not in intensive care)\uff0cR\uff1a\u5eb7\u5fa9 (Recovered)\uff0cD\uff1a\u6b7b\u4ea1 (Deceased).\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u4ee5\u5927\u5df4\u9ece\u5730\u5340\u91ab\u9662\u6578\u64da\u7684\u6821\u6b63\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u53ca\u6bcf\u9031\u767c\u75c5\u7387\u548c\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u7fa4\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\uff1a
\u5716\u4e09\uff08a\uff09\u89c0\u5bdf\u52303\u67081\u65e5\u52303\u670825\u65e5\uff0c\u5927\u5df4\u9ece\u5730\u5340\u7684\u5165\u9662\u4eba\u6578\u5448\u6307\u6578\u589e\u9577\u3002
\u5716\u4e09\uff08b\uff09\u6a21\u64ec\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff08LD\uff09\u5be6\u65bd\uff08\u7d05\u7dda\uff09\u4e0b\uff0c\u6bcf\u9031\u8f15\u75c7\u548c\u91cd\u75c7\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u6578\u6703\u88ab\u58d3\u5236\u4e14\u9010\u6f38\u6e1b\u5c11\u3002
\u5716\u4e09\uff08c\uff09\u6a21\u64ec\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\u5be6\u65bd\uff08\u7d05\u7dda\uff09\u4e0b\uff0c\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6578\u4ecd\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u4f46\u4e26\u4e0d\u6703\u5982\u672a\u5c01\u57ce\uff08\u7070\u7dda\uff09\u6642\uff0c\u5448\u6307\u6578\u589e\u9577\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
\u5716\u4e09\uff1a\u4ee5\u5927\u5df4\u9ece\u5730\u5340\u91ab\u9662\u6578\u64da\u6821\u6b63\u6a21\u884c\u53ca\u6bcf\u9031\u767c\u75c5\u7387\u548c\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u7fa4\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u7684\u4f30\u8a08<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u6a21\u64ecICU\u91cd\u75c7\u75c5\u5e8a\uff0c\u56e0\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u800c\u6e1b\u5c11\u4f54\u5e8a\u7387\uff1a
\u5716\u56db\uff08a\uff09\uff1a\u6a21\u64ecICU\u7684\u5165\u9662\u7387\u3002\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\uff08\u7d05\u7dda\uff09\u767c\u63ee\u6548\u679c\u8b93ICU\u5165\u9662\u7387\u6e1b\u5c11\u3002\u5047\u5982\u6c92\u6709\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\uff0c\u5247\u6703\u5448\u73fe\u7070\u7dda\uff0c\u5165\u9662\u4eba\u6578\u5448\u6307\u6578\u589e\u9577\u3002
\u5716\u56db\uff08b\uff09\uff1a\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u671f\u9593\uff08\u7d05\u7dda\uff09\u6a21\u64ec\u7684ICU\u75c5\u5e8a\u4f54\u5e8a\u6578\u91cf\u6e1b\u5c11\uff08\u9810\u6e2c\u81f35\u670810\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5c01\u57ce\uff0c\u5728\u56db\u6708\u6642ICU\u75c5\u5e8a\u6703\u5448\u73fe\u904e\u8f09\u8da8\u52e2\uff08\u7da0\u8272\u6a6b\u5be6\u7dda\u70ba\u91ab\u9662ICU\u75c5\u5e8a\uff0c\u7d042,500\u5e8a\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u6703\u6162\u6162\u4e0b\u964d\u3002
\u5716\u56db\uff08c\uff09\uff1a\u6a21\u64ec\u7684ICU\u91cd\u75c7\u76e3\u8b77\u75c5\u5e8a\u5e8a\u4f4d\uff0c\u5728\u9069\u7576\u7684\u5e72\u9810\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0b\uff08\u6dfa\u7da0\u8272\uff1b\u8868\u793a\u6e1b\u5c1173%\u7684\u63a5\u89f8\u8005\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u82f1\u570b\u5be6\u884c\u7684\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u65b9\u5f0f\uff09\uff0cICU\u75c5\u5e8a\u4ecd\u7136\u6703\u6162\u6162\u8d85\u904e\u8ca0\u8f09\u3002\u800c\u5728\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u98a8\u57ce\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0b\uff08\u6df1\u7da0\u8272\uff1b\u8868\u793a\u6e1b\u5c1190%\u7684\u63a5\u89f8\u8005\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e2d\u570b\u5be6\u884c\u7684\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u65b9\u5f0f\uff09\uff0cICU\u75c5\u5e8a\u7684\u8ca0\u8f09\u91cf\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0b\u964d\uff08\u9810\u6e2c\u81f35\u670810\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
\u5716\u56db\uff1a\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u8207\u73fe\u6709\u6578\u64da\u7684\u6bd4\u8f03<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

(3) \u8a55\u4f30\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u9000\u51fa\uff08\u505c\u6b62\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\uff09\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/strong>
\u570b\u5bb6\u885b\u751f\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u6839\u64da3\u670817\u65e5\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u5728\u5927\u5df4\u9ece\u5730\u5340\u524d\u5169\u9031\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4e14\u5229\u7528\u5404\u7a2e\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u7d44\u5408\u4f86\u7814\u7a76\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u767c\u751f\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u3002\u85c9\u7531\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u5b78\u6821\u95dc\u9589\u3001\u9060\u8ddd\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u9577\u8005\u9694\u96e2\u3001\u95dc\u9589\u975e\u5fc5\u8981\u6d3b\u52d5\u548c\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2\uff08\u8868\u4e00\uff09\uff0c\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u6642\u9593\u9ede\u9032\u884c\u7684\u9694\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u5716\u4e94\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
\u8868\u4e00\uff1a\u5404\u7a2e\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u7684\u7d44\u5408\uff08\u4e2d\u6587\u7ffb\u8b6f\uff09<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
\u8868\u4e00\uff1a\u5404\u7a2e\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u7684\u7d44\u5408<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u5404\u7a2e\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u7d44\u5408\uff08\u984f\u8272\u53c3\u8003\u8868\u4e00\uff09\u3002
LD\uff08Apr\uff09\uff1a\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u81f3\u56db\u6708\u5e95\uff08\u7d05\u8272\uff09\u3002
LD\uff08May\uff09\uff1a\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u81f3\u4e94\u6708\u5e95\uff08\u7d05\u8272\uff09\u3002
LD\uff08June\uff09\uff1a\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u81f3\u516d\u6708\u5e95\uff08\u7d05\u8272\uff09\u3002
LD\uff08Apr\uff09\uff0bStrick\uff1a\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u81f3\u56db\u6708\u5e95\uff08\u7d05\u8272\uff09\uff0b\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u6df1\u7da0\u8272\uff09\u3002
LD\uff08Apr\uff09\uff0bMod\uff1a\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u81f3\u56db\u6708\u5e95\uff08\u7d05\u8272\uff09\uff0b\u9069\u5ea6\u7684\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u7da0\u8272\uff09\u3002
LD\uff08Apr\uff09\uff0bMild\uff1a\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u81f3\u56db\u6708\u5e95\uff08\u7d05\u8272\uff09\uff0b\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u6dfa\u7da0\u8272\uff09\u3002
LD\uff08Apr\uff09\uff0bSC,SI\uff1a\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u81f3\u56db\u6708\u5e95\uff08\u7d05\u8272\uff09\uff0b\u95dc\u5b78\u6821\u548c\u9577\u8005\u9694\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u819a\u8272\uff09\u3002
Exit1\uff1a\u9069\u5ea6\u7684\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u7da0\u8272\uff09\uff0b50%\u611f\u67d3\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2\u3002
Exit2\uff1a\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u6df1\u7da0\u8272\uff09\uff0b25%\u611f\u67d3\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2\u3002
Exit3\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u6708\uff08\u4e94\u6708\uff09\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u6df1\u7da0\u8272\uff09\uff0b\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u7684\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u6dfa\u7da0\u8272\uff09\uff0b75%\u611f\u67d3\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2\u3002
Exit4\uff1a\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u6df1\u7da0\u8272\uff09\u53ca\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u6dfa\u7da0\u8272\uff09\u4ea4\u932f\u5be6\u884c\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u6708\uff08\u4e94\u6708\uff0975%\u611f\u67d3\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2\uff0b\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u5e7e\u500b\u670850%\u611f\u67d3\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
\u5716\u4e94\uff1a\u5404\u7a2e\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u7d44\u5408\uff08\u984f\u8272\u53c3\u8003\u8868\u4e00\uff09LD\uff1a\u4ee3\u8868\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2 LockDown\uff0cCI\uff1a\u4ee3\u8868\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2Case Isolation\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u6a21\u64ec\u4e0d\u540c\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\u7684\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u548c\u9000\u51fa\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff09\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002
\u5716\u516d\uff08a\uff09\uff1a\u5047\u8a2d\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u52304\u6708\u5e95\uff08\u6a58\u7dda\uff09\u30015\u6708\u5e95\uff08\u7d05\u7dda\uff09\u30016\u6708\u5e95\uff08\u6df1\u7d05\u7dda\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u6bcf\u65e5\u81e8\u5e8a\u75c5\u4f8b\u4ecd\u6703\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u5e45\u7684\u589e\u9577\u3002 \u4f8b\u5982\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u5230\u516d\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u6c92\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u63aa\u65bd\u76f4\u63a5\u8b93\u5927\u773e\u56de\u5230\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\uff08\u5c01\u57ce\u524d\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\uff09\uff0c\u5247\u57288\u6708\u5e95\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u53c8\u6703\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u4f8b\u51fa\u73fe\u3002
\u5716\u516d\uff08b\uff09\uff1a\u91dd\u5c0d\uff08a\uff09ICU\u91cd\u75c7\u76e3\u8b77\u75c5\u5e8a\u7684\u76f8\u61c9\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u4e5f\u662f\u76f8\u5c0d\u5927\u5e45\u9700\u8981
\u5716\u516d\uff08c\uff09\uff1a\u6a21\u64ec\u5047\u8a2d\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u6301\u7e8c\u52304\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u9032\u884c\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u5e72\u9810\uff08\u5982\u8868\u4e00\u53ca\u5716\u4e94\u7684\u5e72\u9810\u624b\u6bb5\uff09\u3002\u5982\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u5230\u56db\u6708\u5e95\uff08LD\uff08Apr\uff09\uff1b\u6a58\u7dda\uff09\uff0c\u4e14\u4e4b\u5f8c\u4e0d\u9032\u884c\u4efb\u4f55\u9694\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5247\u6703\u5c07\u518d\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u4f8b\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u5230\u56db\u6708\u5e95\u4e14\u52a0\u4e0a\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff08LD\uff08Apr\uff09+Strict\uff1b\u7da0\u7dda\uff09\uff0c\u5247\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u4f8b\u5c07\u5927\u5e45\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u5927\u91cf\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u4f8b\u7684\u51fa\u73fe
\u5716\u516d\uff08d\uff09\uff1a\u91dd\u5c0d\uff08c\uff09ICU\u91cd\u75c7\u76e3\u8b77\u75c5\u5e8a\u7684\u76f8\u61c9\u9700\u6c42\u3002
\u5716\u516d\uff08e\uff09\uff1a\u6a21\u64ec\u6bcf\u7a2e\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u57281\u5e74\u5f8c\u76f8\u5c0d\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\u767c\u75c5\u7387\u5cf0\u503c\u548c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u898f\u6a21\u3002
\u5716\u516d\uff08f\uff09\uff1a\u91dd\u5c0d\uff08e\uff09\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u8a72\u5340\u57dfICU\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u9ad8\u5cf0\u9700\u6c42\uff082,500\u5f35\u75c5\u5e8a\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
\u5716\u516d\uff1a\u6a21\u64ec\u4e0d\u540c\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\u7684\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u548c\u9000\u51fa\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u900f\u904e\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u6aa2\u6e2c\u548c\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u6a21\u64ec\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u548c\u9000\u51fa\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff08\u9810\u6e2c\u81f32021\u5e74\u4e8c\u6708\uff09\u3002
\u5716\u4e03\uff08a\uff09\uff1a\u9010\u6b65\u9000\u51fa\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5be6\u884c\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u653f\u7b56\uff08\u5982\u8868\u4e00\u548c\u5716\u4e94\u6240\u793a\uff09\uff0c\u6a21\u64ec\u6bcf\u5929\u65b0\u589e\u81e8\u5e8a\u75c5\u4f8b\u6578\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u898bEXIT1\uff08\u8868\u793a\u9069\u5ea6\u7684\u5e72\u9810\u63aa\u65bd\uff0b50%\u7684\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2\uff09\u548cEXIT2\uff08\u8868\u793a\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u5e72\u9810\u63aa\u65bd\uff0b25%\u7684\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2\uff09\u6548\u679c\u8f03\u4f73\u3002
\u5716\u4e03\uff08b\uff09\uff1a\u91dd\u5c0d\uff08a\uff09\uff0cICU\u91cd\u75c7\u76e3\u8b77\u75c5\u5e8a\u7684\u76f8\u61c9\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u767c\u73fe\uff0c
\u5047\u5982\u5728\u56db\u6708\u89e3\u9664\u5c01\u57ce\uff0c\u4e14\u5be6\u65bdExit3\u548cExit4\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\u6642\uff0cICU\u91cd\u75c7\u75c5\u5e8a\u4ecd\u6703\u904e\u8f09\uff08\u7da0\u8272\u6a6b\u5be6\u7dda\u70ba\u91ab\u9662ICU\u75c5\u5e8a\uff0c\u7d042,500\u5e8a\uff09\u3002
\u5716\u4e03\uff08c\uff09\uff1a\u5982\u5716\uff08a\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u9000\u51fa\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u57281\u500b\u6708\u5f8c\u5be6\u65bd\uff0c\u5373\u4fdd\u6301\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u76f4\u81f35\u6708\u5e95\u3002
\u5716\u4e03\uff08d\uff09\uff1a\u91dd\u5c0d\uff08c\uff09\uff0cICU\u91cd\u75c7\u76e3\u8b77\u75c5\u5e8a\u7684\u76f8\u61c9\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
\u5716\u4e03\uff1a\u900f\u904e\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u6aa2\u6e2c\u548c\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u6a21\u64ec\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u548c\u9000\u51fa\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u5c0d\u65bc\u6b64\u6b21\u7684COVID-19\u5168\u7403\u5927\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u5167\u4ecd\u4e0d\u6703\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u70ba\u9632\u6b62\u75ab\u60c5\u5feb\u901f\u50b3\u64ad\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u4ecd\u8981\u5805\u6301\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u5728\u964d\u4f4e\u91ab\u7642\u8ca0\u8f09\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u8003\u91cf\u4e0b\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u8003\u616e\u65bd\u884c\uff1a\u900f\u904e\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u6aa2\u6e2c\u548c\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0bExit1\u65b9\u6848<\/strong>\u3002
\u5373\u70ba\u9069\u5ea6\u7684\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff0b\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2
(1) \u95dc\u5b78\u6821\uff08\u964d\u4f4e50%\u5c0f\u5b69\u5728\u516c\u5171\u904b\u8f38\u7cfb\u7d71\u8207\u4ed6\u4eba\u63a5\u89f8\uff09
(2) 50%\u9060\u8ddd\u5de5\u4f5c
(3) \u9577\u8005\u9694\u96e2\uff08\u964d\u4f4e75%\u9577\u8005\u8207\u4ed6\u4eba\u63a5\u89f8\uff09
(4) \u95dc\u958950%\u975e\u5fc5\u9808\u6d3b\u52d5
(5) \u9694\u96e250%\u500b\u6848<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reference:
Expected impact of lockdown in \u00cele-de-France and possible exit strategies. Di Domenico et al. (2020)
https:\/\/www.epicx-lab.com\/uploads\/9\/6\/9\/4\/9694133\/inserm-covid-19_report_lockdown_idf-20200412.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5c0d\u65bc\u6b64\u6b21\u7684COVID-19\u5168\u7403\u5927\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u5167\u4ecd\u4e0d\u6703\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u70ba\u9632\u6b62\u75ab\u60c5\u5feb\u901f\u50b3\u64ad\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u4ecd\u8981\u5805\u6301\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u5728\u964d\u4f4e\u91ab\u7642\u8ca0\u8f09\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u8003\u91cf\u4e0b\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u8003\u616e\u65bd\u884c\uff1a\u900f\u904e\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u6aa2\u6e2c\u548c\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0bExit1\u65b9\u6848\u3002
\n\u5373\u70ba\u9069\u5ea6\u7684\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff0b\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2
\n(1) \u95dc\u5b78\u6821\uff08\u964d\u4f4e50%\u5c0f\u5b69\u5728\u516c\u5171\u904b\u8f38\u7cfb\u7d71\u8207\u4ed6\u4eba\u63a5\u89f8\uff09
\n(2) 50%\u9060\u8ddd\u5de5\u4f5c
\n(3) \u9577\u8005\u9694\u96e2\uff08\u964d\u4f4e75%\u9577\u8005\u8207\u4ed6\u4eba\u63a5\u89f8\uff09
\n(4) \u95dc\u958950%\u975e\u5fc5\u9808\u6d3b\u52d5
\n(5) \u9694\u96e250%\u500b\u6848<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3857,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[215,16],"tags":[146,192,194,195,193],"class_list":["post-3827","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-covid-19","category-health","tag-covid-19","tag-inserm","tag-194","tag-195","tag-193"],"yoast_head":"\n[COVID-19]\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u53ca\u672a\u4f86\u7b56\u7565\u5831\u544a\u66f8-\u6cd5\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u885b\u751f\u7814\u7a76\u9662\uff08INSERM\uff09 - \u60f3\u65b9\u6d89\u6cd5 - \u91cf\u74f6\u5916\u7684\u5929\u7a7a M-Y-Oceane<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u5c0d\u65bc\u6b64\u6b21\u7684COVID-19\u5168\u7403\u5927\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u5167\u4ecd\u4e0d\u6703\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u70ba\u9632\u6b62\u75ab\u60c5\u5feb\u901f\u50b3\u64ad\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u4ecd\u8981\u5805\u6301\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u5728\u964d\u4f4e\u91ab\u7642\u8ca0\u8f09\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u8003\u91cf\u4e0b\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u8003\u616e\u65bd\u884c\uff1a\u900f\u904e\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u6aa2\u6e2c\u548c\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0bExit1\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5373\u70ba\u9069\u5ea6\u7684\u793e\u6703\u758f\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff0b\u500b\u6848\u9694\u96e2(1) \u95dc\u5b78\u6821\uff08\u964d\u4f4e50%\u5c0f\u5b69\u5728\u516c\u5171\u904b\u8f38\u7cfb\u7d71\u8207\u4ed6\u4eba\u63a5\u89f8\uff09(2) 50%\u9060\u8ddd\u5de5\u4f5c(3) \u9577\u8005\u9694\u96e2\uff08\u964d\u4f4e75%\u9577\u8005\u8207\u4ed6\u4eba\u63a5\u89f8\uff09(4) 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